Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Bye Bye Eurozone









I have concluded that the Euro must crash, resulting in chaos in the Eurozone financial markets, more social unrest, and a depression in Europe, with very dire results for the US.


Therefore, time to exit equity investments. The seven fat years have come and gone. Now we'll see the seven lean years. It will take about six months for the fact that the situation is structurally unworkable to sink in. So let's say July of 2012. The reasons are really simple. In the old days when Greece, or Spain, or Italy mismanaged their financial affairs, as they often did, their currency suffered by a worsening of the exchange rate versus more prudent countries. With the Euro, that effect is diluted by the big German economy, so the full impact of feckless Greece's spending spree took a long time to come back to roost.


Who can bail out these guys? Well, nobody. But of course the US will, by using the International Monetary Fund. This is the 'too big to fail' mistake all over again. Europe does not have the political will to undergo the austerity necessary to fix the problem. Therefore, the problem will not get fixed.

By the way, I'm still working on the relationship of the Gospel of John to Samaritans and their religion. Interesting how the Samaritans are portrayed in a positive way!